National home sales via Canadian MLS® Systems declined by 2.9% in April 2018 to the lowest level in more than five years. About 60% of all local housing markets reported fewer sales, led by the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Ottawa and Montreal. Activity was below year-ago levels in about 60% of all local markets, led overwhelmingly by the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and by markets in and around Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region. The number of newly listed homes declined 4.8% in April. Having reached a nine-year low for the month, new listings stood 12% below the 10-year monthly moving average.
The USDCAD is higher, whether this is just USD driven against most currencies by the troubles taking place between Israel and Palestine, gold however has fallen $21 an ounce which seems to fly against most economic norms. The other answer maybe the nine year low in housing sales, or it could be a combination of both.
USDCAD 1.2888, 1.2876, 1.2870 1.2918, 1.2922, 1.2938
XE Market Analysis: North America – May 15, 2018
USD-CAD printed a three-session high earlier, at 1.2827, extending rebound gains from the three-week low that was seen last week at 1.2719. The disappointing April employment out of Canada, in data released on Friday, which weakened BoC tightening expectations, helped give the pair a prop, though renewed buoyance in oil prices should give the Canadian dollar an offsetting prop, if sustained. Crude prices are presently up 0.4% on the in the WTI benchmark futures market, at $71.38, which is just little 43 cents from the 42-month high that was posted last week. Resistance is at 1.2836-40. The Canadian calendar is quiet today ahead of a flurry of releases from tomorrow through to the end of the week, culminating in April CPI data on Friday.
EUR-USD cleared yesterday’s low on route to posting a two-day low at 1.1910, extending declines from yesterday’s high at 1.1996. The move was driven by dollar gains, which have been concomitant with a renewed lift in U.S. Treasury yields, which took the 10-year T-note yield back above 3.0%. Last week’s four-month low at 1.1822 is back in range, though we see EUR-USD as having entered a comparatively stable trading range after tumbling some 4% from mid April through to last week. Support is at 1.1910-12.
Sterling traded moderately firmer on UK labour data for March, which showed expected perkiness in pay growth (of 0.4% y/y in inflation adjusted terms in the ex-bonus figure) and a data-series low in the employment rate (75.6%) and a decline in the economically inactive rate (to 21.0%). With productivity lagging, expectations for a resumption of gradual BoE tightening later in the year should find some renewed support. The pound lifted out of pre-data intraday losses, with Cable gaining some 30 pips in lifting to the 1.3550 area, and EUR-GBP falling by some 20 pips to the 0.8795-0.8800 area. The gain matched a post-data spike of over 1 bp in the UK’s 2-year yield, though this subsequently reversed, and the pound’s upward bias stalled.