There were 470,000 job vacancies among Canadian employers in the fourth quarter, up 89,000 (+23.2%) from the fourth quarter of 2016, the largest year-over-year increase since the start of the series in 2015. Over the same period, the job vacancy rate rose 0.5 percentage points, reaching 2.9%.
Statistics Canada’s nationwide home price index declined by 0.2 percent from January, the most since June 2009 around the time of the nation’s last recession. Toronto new home prices fell for the first time since 2010.
President Trump has just announced that there is no set timeline on the NAFTA talks, Canadian dollar is still basically unchanged.
USDCAD 1.2576, 1.2566, 1.2558 1.2622, 1.2648, 1.2656
USD-CAD remained heavy after posting a fresh eight-week low yesterday at 1.2544. A surge in oil prices this week to 40-month highs has given the Canadian dollar a boost, helping offset disappointment from the news that an announcement on the NAFTA renegotiation will be delayed. The latest price action in USD-CAD affirms a downside trend that’s been developing over the last three weeks, from levels above 1.3100, and we expect more downside. Initial resistance is at 1.2634-36.
EUR-USD has declined after a four-day run higher capped out yesterday at 1.2397. While price action so far this week fits talk of there being a sell-dollars-into-gains view following the big U.S. jobs report miss of last week, a big miss in industrial production data provided fresh evidence of there being a notable economic slowdown in the Eurozone. EUR-USD remains near the midway levels of a broad consolidation range that’s been seen for some two months now, which has followed a 14-month rally phase from sub-1.0500 levels. More of the same seems likely, with the odds for a big-picture breakout seeming low at the present time.
The dollar found some bids following an early-morning tweet shower from Trump, which, among other things, said that an attack on Syria had not yet been decided and suggested that he doesn’t have any plans to sack special council Mueller. USD-JPY lifting about 15 pips from pre-tweet shower levels, enough for the pair to post a two-day high at 107.15, while EUR-USD ebbed by some 30 pips to the 1.2330-35 area. A big miss in industrial production data provided fresh evidence of economic growth moderation in the Eurozone, putting in some bearish fodder into euro narratives. Elsewhere, Sweden’s krona dropped sharply after Swedish inflation data missed expectations, which propelled EUR-SEK to levels not seen since December 2009. EUR-CHF remained buoyant despite concurrent EUR-USD weakness, with strong gains being seen in USD-CHF.